What happens in Vegas gets bet on by everybody else. bmaker.ag has released its betting odds for potential CES announcements this week.
First, a quick primer: When an oddsmaker says the odds of an event happening are +150 or 16 percent, the “+150″ part refers to the return on the wager, and the percentage is the expected likelihood that the stated prediction will actually happen.
With that out of the way, bmaker.ag says the odds that Verizon will announce an exact launch date for a CDMA iPhone are +250 or 28 percent. Odds that Macworld‘s servers will buckle following such an announcement are closer to 88 percent.
bmaker.ag places the odds that Motorola will unveil 10-inch tablet at +300 or 25 percent; odds that I won’t buy one are approaching 100 percent.
The site places the odds that Samsung will debut its first Google TV at +400 or 20 percent; odds that no one will buy one are perhaps a surer bet than the one about me and a Motorola tablet. (That +400/20 percent matches the odds that Sony Ericsson will debut a PlayStation phone.)
Considering the International Consumer Electronics Show takes place in the gambling capital of the United States, it was only a matter of time before bookmakers started weighing in on the proceedings about to take shape on the convention floor.
According to Mickey Richardson, the chief executive of sportsbook bmaker.ag, it’s much more likely that Verizon will announce an exact launch date for a CDMA iPhone than Sony Ericsson will debut a PlayStation Phone here at CES, the world’s largest consumer electronics showcase.
Apparently, there is a 28% chance that Verizon will unveil a CDMA version of Apple’s iPhone at CES, while there’s only a 20% chance that Sony Ericsson will take the wraps off some sort of hybrid between a smartphone and the PlayStation Portable (PSP).
bmaker.ag also calculated the odds of Motorola unveiling a 10-inch tablet to compete with the iPad (25%), HTC launching an LTE (long-term evolution) smartphone (28%) and Hewlett-Packard finally launching a webOS-powered tablet (22%).
There’s also a lot of buzz about HTC’s LTE phone. It’s almost certain the company will debut the phone, but it’s only 28% likely that it’ll be called, “Thunderbolt” as rumored, according to bmaker.ag. What about Samsung debuting its first Google TV and Sony debuting its rumored Playstation phone? Odds are that it’s not likely to happen. bmaker.ag reports a 20% probability.
And finally, HP and Palm…will they introduce a tablet at CES this year? There’s only a 22% chance of that happening if you go by bmaker.ag’s analysis.
Care to wager what happens at CES?
What can gadget enthusiasts expect during this week’s festivities at the Consumer Electronics Show? Online oddsmaker bmaker.ag is weighing in on pre-show rumors.
bmaker.ag says the odds that Verizon will announce an exact launch date for a CDMA iPhone at +250 or 28%. (A +/- indicates the return on a wager; the percentage is the likelihood that the response will occur).
My question: will Verizon actually announce anything iPhone-related in Las Vegas and without the presence of Steve Jobs? Unlikely.
Here are other bmaker.ag lines:
– Odds that Motorola will debut a 10-inch tablet are +300 or 25%.
– Odds that HTC will debut an LTE (4G) phone called Thunderbolt are +250 or 28%.
– Odds that Samsung will debut their first Google TV are +400 or 20%.
– Odds that Sony Ericsson will debute a PlayStation phone are +400 or 20%.
– Odds that HP and Palm will introduce a tablet (presumably based on the webOS operating system), +350 or 22%.
