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Oscar betting: Where’s the smart money going?

bmaker.ag” target=”_blank”>bmaker.ag has released its Oscar odds. No big surprises in there, though as they post info on where the activity is on the rise (the percentage increase in “action” you see as the last number, you have to puzzle over who thinks the long shots have a real shot and is willing to put money where one’s mouth might go.

In the first column — the lowest number, or highest negative number, indicates the favorite.

So…they see it as Portman and Firth, Bale and Leo, with “King’s Speech” edging “Social Network” (both are getting plenty of betting action)) and Tom Hooper sneaking a best director prize away (again, a narrow difference in the betting) from David Fincher.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

CHRISTIAN BALE – THE FIGHTER

-1300

93%

GEOFFERY RUSH – THE KING’S SPEECH

300

25%

JEREMY RENNER – THE TOWN

2200

0.45%

JOHN HAWKES – WINTER’S BONE

2200

0.45%

MARK RUFFALO – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

-1300

0.45%

BEST ACTRESS

ANNETTE BENING – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

400

20%

JENNIFER LAWRENCE – WINTERS BONE

1300

7%

MICHELLE WILLIAMS – BLUE VALENTINE

3500

0.05%

NATALIE PORTMAN – BLACK SWAN

-1225

70%

NICOLE KIDMAN – RABBIT HOLE

2500

0.2%

BEST PICTURE

127 HOURS

4000

0.01%

BLACK SWAN

4000

0.01%

INCEPTION

4000

0.01%

THE FIGHTER

2500

0.4%

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

4000

0.01%

THE KING’S SPEECH

-400

80%

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

-350

78%

TOY STORY 3

4000

0.01%

TRUE GRIT

2500

.2%

WINTER’S BONE

4000

0.01%

LEADING ACTOR

JAVIER BARDEM – “BIUTIFUL”

2500

0.2%

JEFF BRIDGES – “TRUE GRIT”

2000

0.5%

SSE EISENBERG – “THE SOCIAL NETWORK”

1000

1%

COLIN FIRTH – “THE KING’S SPEECH”

-2200

98%

JAMES FRANCO – “127 HOURS”

900

10%

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS – “THE FIGHTER”

1200

7.7%

HAILEE STEINFELD – “TRUE GRIT”

200

33.3%

HELENA BONHAM CARTER – “THE KING’S SPEECH”

300

25%

JACKI WEAVER – “ANIMAL KINGDOM”

2500

0.7%

MELISSA LEO – “THE FIGHTER”

-500

83.3%

BEST DIRECTOR

DARREN ARONOFSKY – “BLACK SWAN”

1500

7.7%

DAVID FINCHER – “THE SOCIAL NETWORK”

-1600

95%

DAVID O. RUSSELL – “THE FIGHTER”

2200

3%

JOEL COEN AND ETHAN COEN – “TRUE GRIT”

1500

0.7%

TOM HOOPER – “THE KING’S SPEECH”

-2000

96.5%


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